FORECO

The aim of FORECO is to provide tools for the identification and operationalisation of sustainable and multifunctional forest use and management strategies that simultaneously take into account ecological and economic risks arising from biotic and abiotic stresses in the coming decades (e.g. drought, storms, bark beetles). Here, above all, the regeneration of forests after disturbances should also be included. In close cooperation with stakeholders at local, national and EU level, we will develop adaptation strategies, especially with regard to the increasing vulnerability of forests and the uncertainty about future development. The core of our methodological approach is a systematic analysis of remote sensing and ground-based monitoring data and the coupling of a process-based ecosystem model with a risk-sensitive, multi-criteria optimisation approach. This is used to assess potential trends in forest ecosystem functioning, ecosystem service provision and optimal management regimes under changing biotic and abiotic threats and timber markets. With this unique combination of data, economic and ecological modelling and the incorporation of expert knowledge, we expect to gain new insights into the dynamics of forest responses to biotic and abiotic threats with important implications for the sustainable management of forests and their contribution to the SDGs.